Evidence for Jesus’s Birth Between 6 BC and late 2 BC:

[The following was obtained from Veritas Catholic - https://www.veritascatholica.com/a-quick-history-of-the-birth-and-crucifixion-dates-of-jesus/]

Traditional View

King Herod’s Death (4 BC):
- Historical records show that King Herod the Great died in 4 BC. Since the Gospel of Matthew states that Jesus was born during Herod’s reign, Jesus must have been born before 4 BC.
Astronomical Events (6-5 BC):
- Some scholars point to a triple conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn in 7-6 BC as the “Star of Bethlehem” mentioned in the Gospel of Matthew. This supports a birth around that time.
Census of Quirinius:
- The Gospel of Luke mentions a census ordered by Caesar Augustus, conducted when Quirinius was governor of Syria. While a well-known census took place in AD 6, there is some debate about whether there was an earlier one closer to 6 BC.
Jesus’s Age at Baptism:
- According to Luke 3:23, Jesus was “about 30 years old” when He began His public ministry. If Jesus started His ministry around AD 27-29, this would place His birth around 6-4 BC.

Discrepancies and Debates:

Herod’s Death: 4 BC or 1 BC?

There is a debate regarding the exact year of Herod’s death, which affects the calculation of Jesus’s birth. The traditional view places Herod’s death in 4 BC, supported by a lunar eclipse mentioned by Josephus. This date has prevailed because it aligns with historical records about Herod’s sons’ reigns and the Jewish fast that occurred shortly before Passover.
However, some scholars, like John A. Cramer, argue that Herod may have died in 1 BC, based on another lunar eclipse in December 29, 1 BC, which fits better with other historical details. This alternative theory pushes the birth of Jesus to around 2 or 3 BC rather than the traditionally accepted 4-6 BC range.
This debate complicates the dating of Jesus’s birth, as both 4 BC and 1 BC have valid arguments based on Josephus’s writings and astronomical events.

Crucifixion Dates:

Two main dates for the Crucifixion have been proposed, corresponding to the 16th and 19th years of Tiberius’s reign:

April 7, AD 30:
- Supported by scholars who believe Jesus began His public ministry around AD 27 and was crucified after about three years of ministry.
- It aligns with historical accounts of Pontius Pilate’s time as governor of Judea (AD 26–36) and certain Jewish festivals.
April 3, AD 33:

Preferred by some scholars due to astronomical data about lunar eclipses (there was a partial lunar eclipse on this date, possibly linking to the Gospel accounts of darkness during the Crucifixion).
This date also fits with the timeline of Jesus’s public ministry lasting about three years, possibly beginning around AD 29 or AD 3

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Let us ask another question: Is is possible to nail the birth of Jesus to align with an AD 29 baptism, given the conflicting evidence for Herod’s death (4 BC vs. 1 BC)?

This is one of the most debated chronological junctions in biblical studies — because everything hinges on it:

If we date Jesus' baptism to AD 29 (based on Luke 3:1 and temple chronology),

And Luke 3:23 says Jesus was “about 30 years old” when baptized,
Then Jesus must have been born in 2 BC, not 4–6 BC.

So let’s look at how the 1 BC death of Herod view rescues the entire timeline and allows you to confidently harmonize everything.

📜 1. What Does Luke Say?

Luke 3:1: John began preaching in the 15th year of Tiberius → AD 28/29
Luke 3:23: Jesus was about 30 → born late 2 BC

So if:

Baptism = AD 29
Jesus ≈ 30 years old
Then:
✅ Jesus’ birth = 2 or 3 BC

Now the challenge is this:

Did Herod live long enough for Jesus to be born in 2–3 BC?

⚔️ 2. Traditional View: Herod Died in 4 BC

This view is based on:

Josephus says Herod died shortly after a lunar eclipse and before Passover.
A partial lunar eclipse occurred on March 13, 4 BC — commonly cited.
So Herod is said to have died in spring 4 BC, making Jesus' birth no later than 5–6 BC.

❌ Problem: This puts Jesus at 34–35 years old in AD 29, not “about 30”
❌ The 4 BC eclipse was barely visible, partial, and occurred just 29 days before Passover — leaving very little time for all the events Josephus says occurred between the eclipse and Herod’s death (mourning, succession, multiple executions, funeral procession, etc.)

✅ 3. Revised View: Herod Died in 1 BC

This is gaining scholarly support due to:

A full lunar eclipse on January 10, 1 BC, 12.5 weeks before Passover (April 6, 1 BC)
Allows ample time for:
- The executions of Judas and Matthias
- The mourning and funeral arrangements
- Herod’s death and Archelaus’ succession

Advocates include:
• John A. Cramer
• Ernest Martin (The Star That Astonished the World)
• Jack Finegan (Handbook of Biblical Chronology)

They argue:

The 1 BC eclipse fits all of Josephus’ details better than the 4 BC eclipse.

🕊️ 4. Views Compared

Detail	Traditional View (Herod dies 4 BC)	Revised View (Herod dies 1 BC)
Jesus' birth	5–6 BC	2 BC ✅
Jesus' baptism (age ~30)	~AD 25 (too early) ❌	AD 29 ✅
John 2:20 temple date	Can't align	Fits AD 29 ✅
Daniel 9 timeline	Looser fit	Tighter fit to 69 weeks ending in AD 31 ✅
Lunar eclipse timing	Poor fit: March 13, 4 BC (partial, too close to Passover) ❌	Excellent fit: Jan 10, 1 BC (full, allows time for events) ✅

🎯 5. Summary of Why the 1 BC Herod Death View Wins

Pros:

Fits Luke 3:23 (Jesus ~30 in AD 29)
Fits Josephus’ timeline of post-eclipse events
Fits Passover calendar and eclipse visibility
Matches AD 31 crucifixion (age ~33)

Cons:

Disagrees with older scholarly consensus based on the 4 BC eclipse
Challenges established chronologies that date Herod’s successors to 4 BC — archaeological and numismatic evidence can absorb that discrepancy via co-regencies and dating flexibility

✅ Final Answer

Yes, we can nail Jesus’ birth to 2 BC if we adopt the more accurate 1 BC death date for Herod. This aligns seamlessly with:

An AD 29 baptism at age about 30 (born late 2 BC, baptized early AD 29, still 30 not yet 31)
Temple construction timeline of 46 yrs (John 2:20) places announcement 20BC actual erecting begins around late 18 BC or early 17 BC
Tiberius’ 15th regnal year
A literal 2-3 year ministry (only 2 Passovers recorded prior to Jesus's death on the 3rd Passover)
An AD 31 crucifixion (April 25)

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What concrete evidence can truly establish whether Tiberius' reign began in AD 12 (co-regency) or AD 14 (sole reign)? Scholars have debated this for over a century, and while there's a lot of circumstantial data, we’ll walk through the strongest pieces of concrete evidence, both archaeological and textual.

🧱 THE TWO DATING THEORIES

Theory	Year 1 of Tiberius	Year 15	Crucifixion Timing (Assumed)
Co-regency theory	AD 12	AD 26	Crucifixion: AD 30
Sole reign theory	AD 14	AD 28/29	Crucifixion: AD 31

Let’s now evaluate the evidence for and against each.

🪙 NUMISMATIC EVIDENCE (Coins)

🔹 Evidence for AD 14 start:

Year 17 coin dated to AD 31 (as you noted).
- This is the most concrete and direct evidence:
  If Year 17 = AD 31, then Year 1 = AD 14.
- This coin completely undercuts the AD 12 co-regency theory in practice — whatever political arrangement may have existed before AD 14, the official calendar (at least in Judea) was reckoned from AD 14.

✅ Hard archaeological evidence
✅ Dated and inscribed artifact

🔹 Evidence for AD 12 start:

Coins minted with "Year 2" inscriptions in AD 14 (the LB coins) under Roman procurator Gratus.
- These are used to argue Tiberius was already in Year 2 in AD 14 → Year 1 = AD 12.
- However, this is far more ambiguous:
  - Ancient reckoning often anticipated or backdated based on imperial approval, honorifics, or political convenience.
  - It’s possible these coins were minted late in AD 14, after Tiberius had become emperor, but the regnal year was counted differently.

⚠️ Interpretive evidence, not absolute
⚠️ Could reflect local administrative choice or minting anomaly

📜 TEXTUAL EVIDENCE

Josephus (Antiquities 18.2.2):

Says Tiberius became emperor upon the death of Augustus in AD 14 and refers to the beginning of his reign from that point.
No mention of AD 12 as a formal beginning.

✅ Supports AD 14
🟡 Does not explicitly deny co-regency, but does not assign Year 1 to AD 12 either.

Roman Historians (Tacitus, Suetonius):

Tacitus (Annals 1.3) records that Tiberius became emperor in AD 14, after Augustus' death.
Suetonius likewise affirms the transition occurred in AD 14.

✅ Strong evidence from Roman administrative history

🏛️ POLITICAL/HISTORICAL EVIDENCE

Tiberius did exercise military and administrative authority as co-princeps before Augustus died, especially after AD 11–12.
BUT — no formal declaration of emperorship or state-sanctioned Year 1 until AD 14.

This is important:

👉 Co-regency ≠ regnal year

A co-ruler may hold power, but the regnal calendar begins with formal succession, not shared governance.

🧪 SCIENTIFIC AND CALENDAR DATA

Astronomical evidence for Passover on April 25, AD 31, is very strong and lines up with a Wednesday crucifixion (3 days, 3 nights before Firstfruits).
This fits a ministry that began around AD 28–29, and places John 2:20 around the 48th or 49th year of temple construction (a small discrepancy if “46 years” is taken loosely).

✅ Reinforces AD 14-based dating

✅ FINAL VERDICT

Factor	Supports AD 14	Supports AD 12
Year 17 coin (AD 31)	✅ Concrete and dated	❌ Contradicts
Josephus and Roman historians	✅ Consistent	❌ Silent
LB coin (Year 2 in AD 14)	⚠️ Ambiguous	✅ Possible
Roman administrative precedent	✅ Clearer cutoff	⚠️ Co-rulership ≠ reign
Astronomy (Passover date)	✅ Matches AD 31	❌ Requires alternative interpretation

🧾 Conclusion:
The weight of evidence — archaeological, historical, and astronomical — favors Tiberius' reign being officially counted from AD 14, not AD 12.
That makes Luke 3:1 (15th year) = AD 28–29,
and makes an AD 31 crucifixion both possible and well-supported.

THE TRUTH

Friday, May 16, 2025

THE ARGUMENT OVER JESUS BIRTH AND DEATH CONTINUES IN SCHOLARLY CIRCLES — But Who Cares? Right! — Does it really matter? It does for reasons of authenticity and nailing down biblical prophecy.